Whatcom Future Shorelines

Herrera partnered with Whatcom County on a groundbreaking initiative to address the growing risks of compound flooding driven by climate change. The Future Shorelines Project is the County’s first comprehensive effort to assess vulnerability to both coastal and riverine hazards and develop forward-looking strategies for resilience.

Over an accelerated nine-month timeline, Herrera led a multidisciplinary team to deliver a robust climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan. Using advanced modeling tools — including the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) and Nooksack River flood models developed for the ongoing Nooksack River Floodplain Integrated Planning Project (FLIP) — we evaluated future scenarios for coastal inundation, bluff erosion, riverine flooding, and riverbank instability. This integrated approach provided a clear picture of how climate-driven hazards intersect across landscapes and communities.

Our team compiled and analyzed geospatial data from County, city, and Tribal partners, overlaying critical infrastructure and natural resources with projected flooding and erosion hazards to identify areas of heightened risk. We worked closely with a technical advisory group representing local governments, Tribes, state and federal agencies, academic institutions, and community organizations to ensure the process was collaborative and inclusive.

Key outcomes included:

• An interactive StoryMap to communicate findings visually
• A user-friendly final report to support informed decision-making
• A pilot adaptation plan for the Birch Bay community
• Policy recommendations to strengthen the County’s Comprehensive Plan and Shoreline Master Program (SMP), which can be emulated by cities

This project underscores the importance of proactive planning in the face of accelerating climate-related threats to communities, critical infrastructure, and natural resources in Whatcom County. By combining rigorous science with stakeholder engagement, the Future Shorelines Project equips communities with tools and strategies to reduce risk and build resilience, helping local governments and partners prepare for challenges that are no longer hypothetical, but increasingly real.